Ransomware in 2025: Trends and Threat Forecast

Ransomware has grown from a criminal nuisance to a multibillion-dollar global threat. In 2025, the landscape is more dynamic, dangerous, and technologically advanced than ever before. With AI transforming both attack and defense capabilities, the ransomware industry—yes, industry—continues to evolve at breakneck speed. This article explores the key trends shaping ransomware in 2025, which sectors are most at risk, and what lies ahead. 

The Rise and Maturity of Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) 

Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) continues to be one of the defining trends in 2025. These platforms allow sophisticated developers to lease their malware to affiliates who execute the attacks, often in exchange for a profit-sharing model. This business-like structure has democratized cybercrime, making it accessible to less technically skilled individuals. 

Groups like LockBit, Black Basta, and RansomHub are notable examples. RaaS offerings are evolving rapidly, with plug-and-play interfaces, real-time support, and even affiliate satisfaction guarantees. As a result, the number of unique ransomware strains has skyrocketed. 

According to Zscaler, we’ve seen an over 35% increase in RaaS deployment strategies compared to last year. This evolution has led to more frequent attacks, higher levels of automation, and broader targeting. 

Small and Mid-Sized Businesses (SMBs) and Supply Chains Under Siege 

While major corporations remain prime targets, cybercriminals are increasingly turning to smaller enterprises and supply chains. SMBs often lack dedicated cybersecurity teams, making them low-hanging fruit. Once compromised, they can provide a gateway to larger partners, making them attractive in multi-tiered supply chain attacks. 

The MOVEit file transfer attack in 2023 and the continued exploitation of software vulnerabilities in 2024 laid the groundwork for attackers in 2025 to refine their approach. These attacks frequently ripple through multiple vendors, damaging hundreds of downstream organizations. 

Attack Timelines Are Shrinking 

One of the most alarming developments is the compression of ransomware attack timelines. In the past, threat actors would dwell inside networks for weeks before launching an attack. In 2025, that dwell time has decreased to as little as 3-4 days, according to Splunk. 

This rapid pace is a reaction to improved threat detection by defenders, but it also suggests growing confidence and efficiency among attackers. AI-powered malware can automatically map networks, steal credentials, and launch encryption payloads in hours rather than days. 

AI: A Double-Edged Sword 

Artificial intelligence is transforming the ransomware landscape on both sides of the conflict. Cybercriminals are using generative AI to write malware, create convincing phishing emails, and even perform voice impersonation (vishing) in real time. Meanwhile, defenders are deploying AI for behavior-based threat detection, anomaly spotting, and response automation. 

The result is a digital arms race. FunkSec, a newer threat actor group, is rumored to be one of the first to fully integrate AI into its ransomware development pipeline. AI has also allowed attacks to be tailored in real time to maximize leverage—targeting critical systems and business units to increase the likelihood of ransom payments. 

Double and Triple Extortion Now the Norm 

Modern ransomware attacks no longer just encrypt files—they also steal sensitive data before encryption. This "double extortion" model allows attackers to threaten public leaks, even if victims manage to restore their data from backups. Increasingly, "triple extortion" tactics are being deployed: after encrypting and stealing data, attackers also threaten distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks if payment is not made. 

Some threat actors, such as Cl0p, are now skipping encryption entirely, opting for pure data-theft extortion. This approach avoids triggering automated ransomware defenses and speeds up the attack timeline. 

Critical Infrastructure Under Pressure 

In 2025, critical infrastructure sectors remain high-value targets. Manufacturing, energy, healthcare, and education are the most frequently attacked industries, with manufacturing alone accounting for over 68% of industrial ransomware attacks in Q1 2025, according to Zscaler’s threat intelligence. 

These industries often rely on outdated systems, lack patching capabilities, and operate 24/7, making downtime extremely costly. Attackers understand that time is leverage, and these environments are the most susceptible to urgent demands. 

Cybercriminal Behavior Becoming Corporate 

Ransomware groups are adopting professional structures and workflows. Internal leaks from groups like Black Basta suggest corporate-style operations with HR, payroll, and dedicated R&D teams. Attackers use project management tools, test malware in sandbox environments, and even conduct "employee performance" reviews. 

This operational maturity allows groups to launch simultaneous campaigns, share infrastructure across affiliates, and quickly pivot tactics based on law enforcement action or public backlash. 

Payment Rates Declining, But Costs Rising 

While the percentage of victims who pay ransoms has declined—down roughly 35% from 2024—ransom demands and total recovery costs continue to rise. The median ransom payment in 2025 is now estimated at $240,000, not including legal, recovery, and reputational costs, according to Chainalysis. 

Many organizations are investing in robust backup systems, zero-trust architectures, and cyber insurance. However, insurers are raising premiums and sometimes refusing to cover repeat victims, further complicating the post-attack landscape. 

Government Crackdowns and Regulations Gaining Traction 

On the policy front, coordinated international efforts are producing some wins. Several high-profile takedowns of RaaS infrastructure occurred in early 2025, including parts of LockBit’s backend systems. The SEC and similar agencies are enforcing stricter incident reporting regulations, forcing public companies to disclose ransomware events within tight windows. 

This transparency is reshaping how boards and executive teams approach cybersecurity. Budget allocations are increasing, and ransomware readiness is now a board-level concern. 

What to Expect Through the End of 2025 

The second half of 2025 is expected to bring continued innovation in both attack and defense techniques: 

• AI-powered voice phishing and deepfake extortion will increase. 

• Targeted low-volume, high-reward attacks will replace large-scale scattershot campaigns. 

• Niche threat groups will emerge in Asia and Latin America, exploiting regional regulatory gaps. 

• Quantum-resistant encryption will become a discussion point as both attackers and defenders prepare for the post-quantum world. 

Conclusion 

Ransomware in 2025 is fast, smart, and lucrative. Fueled by AI, commercialized via RaaS, and targeted at critical sectors, it shows no sign of slowing down. Organizations must adopt a proactive defense strategy—embracing AI-powered threat detection, employee training, zero-trust frameworks, and regulatory compliance—to mitigate the threat. Those who lag behind will continue to pay the price. 

Sources 

1. Splunk. (2025). Ransomware Trends: Threat Landscape Update. https://www.splunk.com/en_us/blog/learn/ransomware-trends.html 

2. Zscaler. (2025). 7 Ransomware Predictions for 2025: AI Threats & New Strategies. https://www.zscaler.com/blogs/security-research/7-ransomware-predictions-2025-ai-threats-new-strategies 

3. Kaspersky. (2025). State of Ransomware Report 2025. https://www.kaspersky.com/about/press-releases/kaspersky-state-of-ransomware-report-2025 

4. Chainalysis. (2025). Crypto Crime Mid-Year Report. https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/crypto-crime-ransomware-victim-extortion-2025 

5. Trellix. (2025). Threat Intelligence April 2025 Report. https://www.trellix.com/advanced-research-center/threat-reports/april-2025 

6. TechRadar Pro. (2025). AI Driving a Surge in Cyber Threats. https://www.techradar.com/pro/security/ai-powering-a-dramatic-surge-in-cyberthreats-as-automated-scans-hit-36-000-per-second 

7. Cybersecurity Intelligence. (2025). Ransomware Trends and Top Predictions. https://www.cybersecurityintelligence.com/blog/ransomware-trends-and-top-six-predictions-for-2025-8267.html